Tripolar Dynamics

Alka Acharya, Director and Senior Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies.

Almost exactly eighteen years ago, in June 1998, after a summit meeting between the Chinese President Jiang Zemin and Bill Clinton of the US, a joint statement was issued in Beijing. It referred to the nuclear tests conducted by India and Pakistan in the preceding months and “the resulting increase in tension” as being “a source of deep and lasting concern to both of us”, which they jointly condemned. The statement went on to say that both the PRC and the US “agreed to continue to work closely together, within the P-5, the Security Council and with others….to prevent an accelerating nuclear and missile arms race in South Asia.” India had strongly dismissed this attempt by both to meddle in its affairs. Of course Vajpayee’s famously “leaked” letter to Clinton, had clearly placed the responsibility for India’s nuclear explosions at China’s door – both China’s advanced nuclear capabilities as also its support to Pakistan. India’s dance with the nuclear giants had begun, bringing the three countries into an intricate power-balancing act, with the shadow of the Sino-Pakistan nexus in the background.

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A Story of Two Ports: Chabahar vs. Gwadar

Virendra Sahai Verma, Honorary Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies.

India-Pakistan rivalry in Baluchistan-Iran coast line is hotting up to become a new nerve centre of geopolitics with direct involvement of US and China. Pakistan’s media is flush with hailing China’s promised investment of US$46 billion for China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as a game changer which will make Pakistan as the ‘next Asian Tiger’. The coast line sits at the mouth of Strait of Hormuz and 17 billion barrels of crude oil pass through from here every day. It connects central Asia, south Asia and west Asia.

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Parsing Tsai Ing-wen’s Inaugural Presidential Speech

Jabin T. Jacob, Assistant Director and Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies.

Tsai Ing-wen and Chen Chien-jen were sworn in on 20 May as the 14th President and Vice-President of the Republic of China on Taiwan, marking the third successful peaceful transition of power on the island through democratic elections. Tsai, the first female president of the island, is expected to take a more moderate position on Taiwan’s relations with China, even if her Democratic Progress Party is not likely to give up its pro-independence stance. It is this latter reality that is likely to keep the Chinese on tenterhooks about Taiwan’s direction under Tsai.

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China’s Strategy to Implement OBOR

K. Yhome is a Research Fellow with the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This article is based on interactions with Chinese government officials and think-tankers during a visit to China as part of a delegation organized by the Institute of Chinese Studies, Delhi from 21-29 April 2016. 

Since Xi Jinping announced the ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) initiative in 2013 this has become another name for China’s diplomacy. Not only is the entire Chinese diplomatic and economic energy being directed towards this one project, the ancient Silk Roads that once connected China with the outside world, are now being presented through art and cultural heritage not only to popularise it within and outside the country, but also as a strategy to counter the growing perception that the OBOR is China’s grandstrategy for dominating the region.

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Understanding Recent US-China Dynamics in a Theoretical Context

Kajari Kamal, PhD student, University of Hyderabad.

The Pentagon recently submitted its 2016 Annual  Report to the US Congress on ‘Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China’[1], hitting hard at China’s military growth and drawing attention to China’s efforts to enhance its reach and power, especially evident in the territorial and maritime sovereignty claims in the South and East China Seas. China retaliated by condemning the report and calling it a deliberate distortion that has severely “damaged mutual trust.” This geopolitical cut and thrust witnessed in the last few days was a rather enigmatic sideshow to the larger strategic contest that has been playing out ever since the Obama administration’s famous strategic “pivot” from the Middle East to East Asia, was announced.

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Changing Chinese Diplomatic Approaches – From ‘ABC’ to ‘Indo-Pacific’

K. Yhome is a Research Fellow with the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This article is based on interactions with Chinese government officials and think-tankers during a visit to China as part of a delegation organized by the Institute of Chinese Studies, Delhi from 21-29 April 2016. 

An interesting abbreviation that tells a lot about the concerns of the strategic community of China today is the so-called ‘ABC approach’. An official in the China’s ministry of foreign affairs (MOFA) opined that Beijing would stand against any regional or global move that adopts what he called the ‘All-But China’ or ABC approach.

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When the British Tried Selling Harrier to China in 1970s

Atul Bhardwaj, Adjunct Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies.

Last week, the Indian Navy bid adieu to the British-built Sea Harrier. The lone Subsonic-Sea Harrier flew among the newly inducted supersonic fighters, MiG 29k to mark the ceremony at Goa. The 1970s vintage machine was de-inducted from the Royal Navy in the year 2006 after serving for good twenty-six years. The Indian Navy had refurbished the aircraft, in 2009, to add another few years to its life. For almost three decades the Harriers were a pride of the Indian Navy flying from aircraft carriers.

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Chinese Provinces and Nepal: The Case of Tibet Autonomous Region

Jabin T. Jacob, Assistant Director and Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies.

The Chinese government might not be able to play a prominent role in Nepal for now, given both Indian dominance and sensitivities. However, China appears to be using its provinces such as Tibet, Yunnan and Sichuan to exercise influence in a different, apparently less threatening way.

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China and River Water Arrangements with Neighbors*

Ambassador (retd.) Kishan S RanaHonorary Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies.

*This text has been amended on the basis of a comment sent in very kindly by a reader.

By a quirk of geography, China is virtually not a river water lower riparian to any country. Thanks to the abundance of rivers that originate in its territory, especially the Himalayan plateau, it is an upper riparian in relation to many of Asia’s great trans-border river systems, including the Brahmaputra and the Mekong. In the North-East of the country, it does have the Amur river as the boundary with Russia, but not the status of a lower riparian.

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Process & Outcomes: Framing Strategic Objectives

Ambassador (retd.) Kishan S RanaHonorary Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies.

In international relations, it is vital to distinguish between process actions that aim at getting to particular outcomes, and the outcomes, which are the end results that we seek to accomplish. Sometimes the boundary between the two may look blurred, but the basics are clear. Examples: if a business delegation, or a minister, visits China to promote trade or attract foreign direct investment (FDI), that is process. The actual trade that results, or FDI inflow, is outcome. If the foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan hold discussions, that is also process, but if that meeting produces an agreement that removes barriers to trade, or improves visa facilities for citizens of both countries, that is outcome.

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