ICS Analysis

The article aims to examine the developments of the geopolitical tensions between the Philippines and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), focusing on the South China Sea (SCS). The issue of sovereignty in the South China Sea is a major flashpoint for all stakeholders, implying its contemporary strategic relevance. The Philippines declared its position when it filed an arbitration case with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) against China in 2013, alleging the Chinese assertion of sovereignty over the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the Philippines. The unanimous award in 2016 was in favour of the Philippines, but it did not change the Chinese approach in the region. The evident increase in daunting standoffs since then, over the Second Thomas Shoal, Mischief Reef, Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal highlights the Philippines’ determination to protect its sovereignty. The paper aims to explore China’s assertive actions in the region through the lens of Mearsheimer’s Offensive Realism. The differences over off-lying islands, overlapping EEZs, proliferation of maritime boundary disputes and conflicting claims of sovereignty on islands and reefs are the key areas of contestation. The recent water cannon incidents between their respective vessels suggest the need for external balancing in the region. China continues to build its military might, enhancing power projection in the South China Sea and reflecting its persistent disregard for the SCS Arbitration ruling.