EVENTS

China’s economy has been undergoing a structural slowdown after experiencing four decades of near double-digit growth rates. For the third time in a row, China has set an annual growth target of around 5 per cent for 2025. To a great extent, whether it achieves the target will be contingent on the performance of its local governments, which are responsible for around 88 per cent of the national expenditure. However, their fiscal situation continues to worsen. Not only has their general budgetary revenue as a percentage of GDP dropped, but revenue from sale of land use rights has also sharply declined. To further compound their misery, local government debt, including hidden debt, has soared to over 50 per cent of GDP. With the central leadership’s crackdown on illegal debt, coupled with falling revenues, the fiscal space for the local governments has been drastically reduced. However, their expenditure mandates continue to expand, thereby creating a structural fiscal imbalance. This has, in turn, severely limited the local governments’ ability to support the economy.

Speaker

Amit Kumar is a Staff Research Analyst at the China desk of the Indo-Pacific Studies Programme in The Takshashila Institution. With a broader focus on China, he studies issues at the intersection of economy, technology, and security. His work encompasses writings on China's economy, domestic politics, foreign policy, and India-China trade and security issues.

Chair

Biswajit Dhar is a Distinguished Professor at the Council for Social Development, New Delhi. He formerly taught at Jawaharlal Nehru University. He was Director General of the Research and Information System for Developing Countries and played a key role in establishing and leading the Centre for WTO Studies. He has represented India in major multilateral negotiations, including the WTO, UNFCCC, WIPO, and CBD, and has served on expert groups for various international organisations. Professor Dhar has been a consultant to UNCTAD, UNESCAP, UNDP, ILO, WHO, and the South Centre, and is widely published in national and international journals. He is a regular columnist, and has served on the Board of Directors of the EXIM Bank of India, and advises several trade and IPR-focused institutions.

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