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Abstract

China’s nuclear arsenal is undergoing the most dramatic modernization since China first acquired nuclear weapons 57 years ago. In addition to increasing road-mobile ballistic missiles, the current phase involves construction of what appears to be more than 300 missile silos, launching additional ballistic missile submarines, as well as adding a nuclear bomber leg to its arsenal. Unlike previous nuclear modernization phases, the current upgrade is highly visible on commercial satellite images, which allows the public to participate in the debate about the nature and implications of Chinese nuclear forces in a way that has never been possible before. Dr. Hans Kristensen will outline his work on monitoring Chinese nuclear forces via analysis of satellite images and production of the Nuclear Notebook and discuss potential implications for Chinese nuclear strategy and policy. Mr. Prasad will examine the implications of China’s nuclear modernisation for India and India’s response.

About the Speakers

Hans M. Kristensen is Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists where he provides the public with analysis and background information about the status of nuclear forces and the role of nuclear weapons. He specializes in using the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) in his research and is a frequent consultant to and is widely referenced in the news media on the role and status of nuclear weapons. Kristensen is also co-author of the Nuclear Notebook column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the World Nuclear Forces overview in the SIPRI Yearbook. The Nuclear Notebook is, according to the publisher, “widely regarded as the most accurate source of information on nuclear weapons and weapons facilities available to the public.” Past Nuclear Notebook columns can be found here. A full listing of Kristensen’s publications can be found here.

Jayant Prasad was the Director-General of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. He was earlier India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan, Algeria, Nepal, and the UN Conference on Disarmament, Geneva. He also served as a lecturer in history, St. Stephen’s College, University of Delhi; Rapporteur of the U.N. Commission on Human Rights, Geneva; Fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University; Visiting Scholar, Center for the Advanced Study of India, University of Pennsylvania; and member of U.N. Secretary-General’s Advisory Board on Disarmament Matters.

About the Chair

Air Marshal M Matheswaran (Retd) is an Indian Air Force veteran with 39 years of active service. Currently, he is the Founder-President of The Peninsula Foundation, a policy research think-tank based in Chennai. He retired as Deputy Chief of Integrated Defence Staff for policy, plans, and force development (DCIDS-PPFD) in HQ IDS, MOD. The Air Marshal is a graduate of the Defence Services Staff College, Wellington and the National Defence College, New Delhi and has a master’s in military science, M Phil, and PhD in Defence and Strategic Studies from the University of Madras. He has carried out numerous studies and evaluations of various defence weapon systems, development projects, Technology and Security Strategy, and various acquisition projects. The Air Marshal is a recipient of the Presidential awards – AVSM, VM, and commendation by the Chief of Air Staff.